I have always heard that the disfellowshipped account for around 1% of publishers. 80,000 disgruntled and alienated people per year adds up pretty fast.... even if you consider the return rate at 50%. And, half or more of those are probably PIMO.
So, the number of disfellowshipped and PIMO's due to the DF poilcy could very well be more than active members in just a 15 year period.
The imploding we are seeing is self-inflicted. I told my brother once that the organization will one day close because they will announce that they have disfellowshipped nearly everyone. It was a joke, but he was oddly amused by the statement. I often wonder how many lives he has destroyed in his nearly 50 year career as an elder. He was appointed at age 19.